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Mounting apprehensions are present regarding the potential of armed conflict between East African countries, Ethiopia and Eritrea, as hostile discourse has intensified in recent weeks.

What Has Ethiopia Stated?

Landlocked Ethiopia's demands for entry to the Red Sea through Eritrea has provoked a intense rhetorical conflict.

The Ethiopian leader first openly declared in 2023 that his nation's maritime access was an existential matter, comments that Eritrea ignored.

Ties between the both governments have frequently been strained. Following a prolonged battle for independence, Eritrea, which has a long maritime frontage, legally broke away from Ethiopian rule in the early 1990s, leaving it landlocked.

In 1998, a border war started in which numerous people were killed.

Latest Remarks from Ethiopian Leadership

Prime Minister Abiy and military leader Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have openly claimed control of Eritrea's maritime facility of the port of Assab – about 60km from the boundary - and hinted at the wish to seize it militarily.

Recently, Abiy said Ethiopia's "blunder" of being denied passage to the sea as a due to Eritrean independence would be "addressed soon".

Ethiopia's ambassador to Kenya, retired Gen Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be given back "using武力".

Eritrean Response to the Claims

Despite ongoing challenges from Ethiopian officials, Asmara's position has been limited to concise remarks on X from Communications Head Yemane Gebremeskel.

The minister has dismissed Ethiopian requests for maritime entry describing it as "dangerous" and a "harmful plan" of "expansionism" – a approach of retaking previous domains.

Eritrean authorities warned on mid-September that efforts to legitimise "obvious provocation" would have serious consequences for Ethiopia and its neighbors and is a "boundary that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Defense Activities on the Border

There have been few indications of significant troop deployments in the frontier regions between the both nations.

Nevertheless, in Ethiopia, state television has displayed graduation ceremonies of many recruits at various military training camps.

The director of human resources department of the armed forces, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, recently said in an conversation that the defense forces was in a "reliable position" as "tens of thousands of recruits" were joining it, which he said was "a signal to our opponents".

Historical Roots of the Conflict

For over fifty years from the late 19th century, Eritrea was ruled by Italian rulers.

After the end of Italian rule, it was then administered by the British administration before becoming a associated territory of Ethiopia.

However in 1962 Emperor Haile Selassie I terminated this arrangement and Eritrea became completely integrated into the Ethiopian state.

A thirty-year armed struggle ensued, finishing with Ethiopia's defeat in 1991. Sovereignty was then confirmed by voters in a plebiscite in 1993.

Briefly in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the authorities in Addis Ababa and Asmara, but they fell out over the precise positioning of their shared boundary, resulting in hostilities in 1998.

Although this concluded in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was incompletely executed, and the both countries remained at in dispute.

This ended in 2018, when Abiy made approaches to Eritrea's leader Isaias Afwerki. The both leaders signed a statement that the conflict was over – a action that earned Abiy the Nobel Peace Prize.

The neighboring states were then partners in the country's previous civil war in the northern region.

Yet diplomatic connections have subsequently deteriorated once more.