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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."

Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.

Arguments range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."

Request for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster should engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."