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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple script. It commonly serves as a form of apology. Sorry we misjudged your squad in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic improvement is handed the prize. In practice, it fuels an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior leadership or simply the biggest shock.

However the latest field is fundamentally unique. The group of contenders is exceptionally deep. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division winners declining and longtime underperformers ascending in unison. During an typical year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a turbulent and fun year, he's up against five other elite coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical vote could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right system, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his rare talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become more confident, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of going rogue. It is an offense constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that springs wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to conjure big plays from nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually each decision – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the building with the immense hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a ordinary season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this is not a typical campaign!

Where Johnson's case runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. However Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a guarantee after his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and experience, he trusted first-timers. From the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just one spot ahead of peers.

Still