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Residents of the Big Apple will learn who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who runs and protects the country's largest city at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to send military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against each other. The contest has turned into an acrimonious face-off, marked by accusations of racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have major implications for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced his rival by double-digits in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

However, Cuomo, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has trashed Mamdani's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani releasing a convicts.

This represents a particularly ugly end to an race that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, floundering in its response to Trump's power moves, takes in the coming years.

National Implications

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be compelled to address a platform that has resonated with Americans' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and the House leader not to embrace at least some of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has created an excitement within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since the Vermont senator ran for president eight years ago.

However, should the former governor, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce national Democrats' current model of considered, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to remain in the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is widely disliked nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. Mamdani's engaging content on social media, his optimistic vision for New York and his readiness to actually venture out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an force of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, the former governor, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to negative campaigning in the final days.

Following extensive launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking Mamdani personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an "radical", and popped up on conservative media for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It reached a nadir recently, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to the capital and threatened to take similar action to NYC, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that is expected. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect the independent into office, as other powerful voices have pressured the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, started his mayoral bid in last year, few had known him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held every edge. The classic political insider, he had married a Kennedy and served in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was elected to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Still, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in recent days, after video emerged appearing to show him implying the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a DSA convention in recent years. The progressive, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Speaking to the actions of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd